This Remarkable Scoring Streak Fuels Aston Villa's Improbable Push for Glory
Just 60 days ago when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery berated him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his displays were a sign or the source for Villa's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, however, the sideline response proved to be much more joyous. After the in-form star curled home his second to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss ripped off his coat, opened his arms and roared. Villa marched on to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, now sit a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Serious Title Contenders?
That’s a rather hard proposition to resolve. The historical record, a general sense of Villa, indicates otherwise. Moreover, their performances haven't been entirely convincing during this run, even as the wins have stacked up.
As per the data, on just two occasions has the side posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team that have strung together 10 in a row, the Villans seem curiously susceptible – but right now the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The current approach appears to be to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to save the day with some precise efforts. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again against the Red Devils.
His opener came from an exquisite effort, arced just inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, Manchester United managed more shots and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival the club have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, surely, cannot maintain drilling the football into the top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Could it be an alternative path whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet find their top level.
- The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he resembled in Germany.
- The defensive duo will eventually come back from the treatment room, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned the midfielder by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.
The current run is to be savoured exactly since it appears so improbable. When the match-winner positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.