Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
